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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 18 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 3-J.Charlton punt is BLOCKED by 57-T.Edwards, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by PHI-54-S.Bradley at CAR 27.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.05 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP