4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 86

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Tennessee Titans 31

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to TEN 48, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.00 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 86, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 44, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model