4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 31 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(6:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right end ran ob at JAX 36 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.79 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model