Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 31 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

(12:28) 8-J.Townsend punts 44 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model