Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 31 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

(6:02) 8-J.Townsend punts 42 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.27 EP
59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model