Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – Tennessee Titans 31

(4:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 85-D.Arnold.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

What Happened

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.45 EP
51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -2.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model