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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 8-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to JAX 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.32 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP