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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model