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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 20 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 2-T.Bass 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.17 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model