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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 31 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 3-M.Haack punts 40 yards to TEN 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model