Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 3
Buffalo Bills 31 – Tennessee Titans 34
What Actually Happened
(:22) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 3 for no gain (98-J.Simmons).
The Three Options
GO
+3.67 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.36 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 3, worth +0.12 EP
KICK
+2.80 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT
-0.02 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
