Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to DET 12, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-K.Raymond to DET 25 for 13 yards (49-J.Bachie). PENALTY on DET-27-B.Price, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at DET 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model