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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 74

Detroit Lions 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 30-J.Williams up the middle to DET 27 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell; 93-W.Ray).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.08 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model