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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to DET 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-K.Raymond ran ob at DET 28 for 14 yards (25-C.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP