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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 83

Detroit Lions 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to CIN 39, Center-47-S.Daly. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 39 for no gain (35-G.Igwebuike).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model