Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 54

Detroit Lions 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

(2:38) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to CIN 5, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.20 EP
72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model