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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 17

Detroit Lions 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 4-A.Seibert 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model