4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 34 – Detroit Lions 11

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 32-T.Williams up the middle to DET 34 for 2 yards (99-J.Okwara).

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.89 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model