Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 72

Detroit Lions 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(6:34) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to CIN 23, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-27-B.Price.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.67 EP
46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model