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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 1

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 66-C.McGovern reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 66-C.McGovern reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott up the middle to NE 1 for no gain (8-J.Bentley). FUMBLES (8-J.Bentley), RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at NE -2. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +3.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 1, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model