Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 74

New England Patriots 14 – Dallas Cowboys 10

(12:58) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to DAL 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 29 for -1 yards (29-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model