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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 50

New England Patriots 14 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to DAL 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 1-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.93 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP