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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 54

New England Patriots 14 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to DAL 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 11 for -1 yards (29-J.Bethel). FUMBLES (29-J.Bethel), and recovers at DAL 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.65 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 54, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP