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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 26 – New England Patriots 29

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-C.Wilson to DAL 48 for 13 yards (31-J.Jones) [91-D.Wise].

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.24 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model