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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 26 – New England Patriots 29

What Actually Happened

(:24) 2-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. NE-29-J.Bethel was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.77 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model