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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 12-Aa.Rodgers up the middle to GB 46 for 2 yards (6-D.Trevathan).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.83 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model