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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 74

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to GB 26, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 42 for 16 yards (44-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.12 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model