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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 45

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to CHI 9, Center-43-H.Bradley. 17-J.Grant to CHI 20 for 11 yards (22-S.Jean-Charles).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.18 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model