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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 40

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 27 yards to GB 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model