Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to CHI 25, Center-43-H.Bradley. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at GB 48 for 27 yards (13-A.Lazard). PENALTY on CHI-23-M.Christian, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 25. Penalty on CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model