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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 13

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.25 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model