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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 45

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-46-L.Rhodes.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP