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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at HOU 21 for 3 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model