Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 58

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

(11:39) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.18 EP
58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model