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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 22

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(14:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short middle to 88-J.Akins [53-D.Leonard].

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP