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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 39

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 21 yards to IND 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model