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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 12

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 10-R.Winslow punts 44 yards to MIN 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 31 for no gain (42-S.Franklin). PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.81 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model