4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 12

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-R.Winslow.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model