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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 3-J.Berry punts 54 yards to CAR 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP