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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 6

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN-69-R.Hill was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP