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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 12

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 10-R.Winslow punts 44 yards to MIN 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-23-S.Thomas-Oliver.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.86 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP