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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 53

Carolina Panthers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 25

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-R.Winslow punts 36 yards to MIN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.93 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model