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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 20

Minnesota Vikings 25 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model