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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 32

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.27 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model