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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-R.Winslow.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 5, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model