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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 41

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to CAR 4, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-85-D.Chisena.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.45 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP