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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 32

Carolina Panthers 20 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 2-Dj.Moore pushed ob at MIN 7 for 25 yards (27-C.Dantzler).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.78 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP