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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.78 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP