Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(:22) 10-R.Winslow punts 41 yards to MIN 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 30 for 4 yards (34-S.Chandler, 23-S.Thomas-Oliver). FUMBLES (34-S.Chandler), touched at MIN 28, recovered by MIN-29-K.Boyd at MIN 25. PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.73 EP
71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model