Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 83

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

(:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to PIT 41, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-57-C.Barton.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.98 EP
70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model